Saturday, July 17

Drum's Question

Kevin Drum asks to lay down our cards. Excellent point in a recent post:

In Iran we have a country that (a) has clear connections with al-Qaeda and apparently even with 9/11, (b) has a genuine and well advanced WMD program, (c) supports terrorist groups like Hezbollah far more than Iraq ever did, (d) has fought wars against its neighbors, (e) is a medieval theocracy, and (f) is determinedly hostile toward the United States.

Question: that's a much more convincing case than we had against Iraq, so should we invade Iran and attempt to install a democratic government in Tehran? If not, why not? After all, those student protests don't seem to be making much progress.

I vote no. How about getting everyone else on the record?
I'll go no, I think...several caveats upcoming. The no, though, is a present tense no- right now, a large scale invasion against a country actually possessing WMD would likely take a pretty hefty toll. Sort of like wrestling the Rock after taking on your little brother.
But what if we could go back in time, say summer of 2002; should we invade Iran and pursue further inspections in Iraq, backed by the Security Council? Here, you have a strong argument. Iran poses a greater threat- but that is less important to American rationale. Rather, Iran could more legitimately be joined to the war on terror. Further, the use of force would show both Hussein and terror sponsoring states that we're serious. Lastly, the legitimacy of the Security Council might have well stayed in-greater-tact, and we might still have NATO joined powerfully in the efforts.
Alas, though, I'm not positive I can support this hypothetical situation. Largely, my hesitancy is one with the war on terror, more than disagreement with the above. If it had to be Iran or Iraq, I'd have picked Iran. (Due Notice: I am far from being in a knowledge position to so choose.)
Rather than military action so quickly after Afghanistan, I would have liked to see major involvement in that country- with the protection against warlords that has been lacking, from everything I can tell, and with the massive search for everything al quaeda to be uprooted.
Put a thumb on Iran and Iraq. Put huge Security Council scrutiny on their weapons programs and terror sponsorship. We now know how Iran and Iraq would have shaked out- Iran being quite the worse character. Assuming this info could have panned out without the Iraq invasion- perhaps now, in 2004, I would support an invasion on Iran. Perhaps.