Wednesday, October 15

LLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTT"S get ready to rumble

The high court will hear the 9th circuit pledge-under-god-in-school case.
And to make things interesting, Scalia has recused himself at the behest of appellee Newdow. (more on that later, i hope- the recusal at Newdow's request is somewhat rare...and I hope to find out whether this is an honorable move by the Justice.)
So it's an 8 Justice panel. I know 1 vote will side with the 9th circuit (Souter), and I'm pretty sure about 2 others (Ginsberg and Breyer). In light of Lee v. Weisman, Kennedy might go the way of Souter on this one too- in that the "under God" portion of the pledge is recited in classrooms with all the coercive peer pressure therein.
Four votes will do it: that creates a tie, 4-4, thus the circuit court is upheld.
I'll also take a shot in the dark and say Stevens will side with Souter.
To boot, I can see O'Conner deciding this a government endorsement.
I promise you today that Rehnquist, Thomas will vote against the 9th circuit, in favor of keeping under God in- citing tradition, perhaps...or the uncoercive nature of the facts at hand.
Most folks are probably betting O'Conner and Kennedy will side with Rehnquist- but, as mentioned above, I'm really not so sure. I reckon this will depend on the extent to which O'Conner finds endorsement and Kennedy finds coercion.
There's my guess. And that puts us at 4-4 at worst (I think they should uphold the 9th circuit) and 6-2 at best. Catching me off-guard might be Stevens and Ginsberg. Watch out.