Capturing Osama, good for Edwards
Call me crazy- but here's my theory. According to some sources pointed out in Counterspin, special ops are waiting for the word from Bush to pull in Osama. Popular belief would have this being very good for Bush's re-election prospects. I agree that Bush's numbers will assuredly go up. But there's a chance it may hurt the re-election.
Once Osama's captured, we will be all the more close to a pre-9/11 status quo. To be sure, the newly perceived fear of quietly scheming terrorists will remain to be exploited; but, Osama's capture might close, for many voters, a chapter in our history.
With that conclusion, the notion that any leader now elected for Presidency must have some requisite war-experience may diminish. The most potent attack on Edwards right now is that concerning his inexperience on the foreign affairs front (nevermind his serving on the intel committee for some years.) In this regard, Kerry's attacking Edwards in the same way Bush would- we can't put someone in the hot seat that isn't tested in a war-time environment.
(Defense against this attack is this: Edwards has the requisite experience- he's served on the intel committee, and has worked hard during five years in the Senate to gain foreign affairs experience. Apart from this, he can be trusted to make appropriate decisions regarding the war on terror-especially in that this is a new kind of war; it is against state-less entities, and it requires some aspects of traditional war, but requires much more in the way of state dept. work and diplomacy. Finally, Edwards is arguably strongest on the domestic protection issues.)
Osama's capture does two things, both good for Edwards, and both stemming from the aforementioned closed chapter..
1) it diminishes the edge Kerry has regarding nat/security. The need for a warrior king falls away; and Kerry's Vietnam service will do about as good as did McCain's.
2) after the intial to-do and glowing around Bush, having fulfilled his promise from a few years ago to bring in Osama, many Americans will more than happily wish to think of the terror-war as less than a war. We will return to a status quo wherein we worry about domestic economic issues...much as we did in spite of the USS Cole and the first Trade Center bombing. The use of fear, and the notion that we need to re-elect Bush in order to finish out the response to 9/11 will have little potency.
Edwards wins, because the election will once again be focused on like-ability (and policy, for the few that care).